Therapeutic prediction of HIV-1 DNA decay: a multicenter longitudinal cohort study

Abstract Background Factors predicting peripheral blood total HIV-1 DNA size in chronically infected patients with successfully suppressed viremia remain unclear. Prognostic power of such factors are clinical significance for making decisions. Methods Two sets study populations were included: 490 China AIDS Clinical Trial (CACT) participants (Training cohort, followed up 144 to 288 weeks) and 117 outpatients from Peking Union Medical College Hospital (PUMCH) (Validation more than 96 weeks). All HIV-1-infected achieved successful plasma RNA suppression within week 48. Total at baseline, 12, 24, 48, 96, weeks after combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) initiation quantified. Generalized estimating equations logistic regression methods used derive validate a predictive model cART. Results The rapidly decreased baseline [median = 3.00 log 10 copies/10 6 mononuclear cells (PBMCs)] 24 (median 2.55 PBMCs), leveled off afterwards. Of the who had by w post-cART, 92 (18.8%) low count (< 100 PBMCs) 96. In model, lower [risk ratio (RR) 0.08, per 1 PBMCs, P < 0.001] higher CD4+ T cell (RR 1.72, cells/μL, 0.001) significantly associated an independent cohort patients, this sensitivity 75.00% specificity 69.52%. Conclusions Baseline two predictors treatment. derived based on these provides useful prognostic tool reservoir control during